Browsing all articles from December, 2011

Are investors giving up?

We have talked here at the blog about hypothecation, re-hypotecation and hyper-hypothecation, about credit default swaps about a Chinese property bubble bursting, about lower iron ore prices, slower economic growth, increased savings and declining rates of credit expansion and a European sovereign default.  Always the value investor, we are on the look out for anything that can impact the values of companies and those things that might offer the prospect of picking up a few bargains.

If your portfolio still has some rubbish in it, then being able to identify it is a key part of preparing for cheaper prices if they eventuate.

I recently wrote a column for the ASX and pondered the possibility of a climactic event coinciding with a complete throwing in of the towel by equity investors who are simply fed up with poor medium term returns and increased volatility recently.

The ASX200 hasn’t generated a positive capital return since 2005 but quality companies have.  T

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Speculators Maintain Sizable EUR Short Position

The most recent CFTC IMM data shows speculators reduced their EUR bearish bets though the market’s short position remains close to levels last seen in the summer of 2010.

The EUR non-commercial short position declined to 95k which is just shy of the May 2010 high of 113k. While non-commercial shorts reduced their position by over 1.5k contracts the decline in the net short position may be explained by a resurgence of EUR bulls with the non-commercial long position rising by 6.9k contracts. To put this data in perspective the cutoff date for the report was Tuesday December 6th, just prior to the ECB meeting and EU economic summit.

It is also worth noting that CHF shorts have climbed to their largest position since June.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. <

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Swiss Franc Drops on Talks About Another Intervention

The Swiss franc declined as Switzerland signaled that it may take steps to further weaken then nation’s currency, which is already subdued by its peg to the euro.

The Swiss National Bank set the ceiling for the franc at 1.20 francs per euro on September 6. The SNB was trying to weaken the Swiss currency for several years, but it was the first time when the central bank was able to contain Swissie’s gains for a prolonged time.

The SNB also suggested that it may boost the cap further in case it would view the strength of the franc as excessive. And the Swiss central bank was continuously stating that it considers the currency overvalued. It’s no surprise that the governme

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Thoughts Midway Through Transatlantic Journey

  • We should do this more often – life is too short to not get out and explore on a regular basis. I’m realizing I’ve been stuck in a comfort zone doing the same old thing for too long.
  • Despite my best intentions to put some focus on the blog and other personal projects I find the time cruising highly inefficient, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. We are thoroughly enjoying our time on the cruise. I’m maybe getting 2 productive hours of work done in a day at sea. Its spread out in short bursts in between conversations, people watching, daydreaming, eating, and relaxing.
  • For this transatlantic journey the flights were the single most expensive component of the trip. The cruise tickets cost is $819 compared to $951 for our flights. Even

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U.S. Trade Balance and Consumer Sentiment Provide Hope

U.S. trade balance printed in line with forecasts showing a deficit of $43.5 billion for the month of October.  The gap shrank 1.6 percent from $44.2 billion in September.  U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in six months in early December according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading.   Confidence printed better-than-expected and climbed for a fourth straight month to 67.7.  This compared with 64.1 in November and a low of 55.7 back in August.

Purchases from overseas fell to the lowest level since April, due almost entirely to a plunge in demand for oil.  Imports of capital and consumer goods climbed, showing spending by American companies and households is keeping the economy growing.  Exports to China and South and Central America reached records, indicating demand from developing nations that is benefiting American companies.

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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Dips Mildly after NFP, Unemployment Rate Dropped to 8.6%

Dollar dips in a knee jerk reaction to US non-farm payroll report but no follow through selling is seen at the time of writing. The NFP showed 120k expansion in the job market in November, slightly above expectation. Prior month’s figure was revised up from 80k to 100k. However, unemployment unexpectedly dropped from 9.0% to 8.6%, the best reading since March 2009. The data is over positive and shows gradual improvement in the labor market. But, it’s not strong enough to trigger meaningful moves in the financial markets. Meanwhile, job data from Canada disappointed and showed -18.6k contraction in November, the second consecutive month of contraction. Unemployment rate also continued its rise from September’s 7.1% to 7.3% in October and 7.4% in November.

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